Tag Archives: Decision Making and Choices

What’s Luck Got To Do With It?

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.” Dwight D. Eisenhower
How much depends on the yearly business plan? For many, it triggers budgets, funding, capital approvals, sanctioned projects, operating targets, salaries, product launches, support activities, hiring, office renovations, perks, …, lots of movement and a myriad of decisions, hopes, dreams, and nightmares. It is often the summary of what we expect, maybe wish or hope, to happen, commit to do, and the outcomes that the world of business should see, translated into the language of finance.
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Reddy or Not, Here I Come!

“We have an app for that,” so goes the ad for a smart phone. I am still amazed by how life is changing through technology. The accessibility and choices at our disposal have redefined nearly everything, and to a great part for the better. Several years I joked about the day when I could sit atop a mountain with a laptop connected to the world and able to conduct my business, only to see someone smile and say, “It’s not that far away.” So, here I am on a mountain, loving the view, with the world at my fingertips, conducting my business and knowing that our readers across the world can share in the output this experience, when, how, and where they chose. We’ve shared the transformation of our lives and our enterprises as a consequence of leaps in telecommunications and the myriad of choices and facilitated activities available to us, our customers, suppliers, competitors, and our world.
New enterprises have jumped on the electronic carpet ride, perhaps working in a “cloud”, and creating new value propositions in a connected world. Business models have literally crumbled, leaving relics, much like those of Ozymandias, because brick, mortar, and paper have been replaced by electrons. In his grave, my very old friend, Reddy Kilowatt, both rejoices, and perhaps weeps as well, as the role of his offspring continue to transform the world. Perhaps it’s a bias, a consequence of a prior professional life, but I believe that nothing has come close to transforming the quality of human life as the availability of reliable electric power. In fact, the arguments that it’s about water, food, education and health care cannot stand alone without the platform built on our friends the electrons. We depend of many energy sources, but in many ways, they are often diminished in value without the electrons at play. Our electrons are such important servants that we store them in forms that make them available 24-7; in fact they make the world available to us 24-7.
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Oh, Can You See By the Dawn’s Early Light?

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
So begins the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence from Great Britain signed by the United States Congress on July 4, 1776. We in the US, celebrate July 4th as Independence Day this weekend with festivities, fireworks, picnics and devotionals to those whose lives were dedicated and often taken to secure these unalienable rights. In fact, the words could serve as anthem to peoples all over the world as a never ending objective and pursuit.
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Truth or Consequences?

I heard someone on the news use the term “oil tsunami” to describe the river of oil currently sweeping across the gulf and the devastation it is delivering to those in the water and on shores. It is an interesting analogy in imagery, but it misses the big point, this growing glob of pestilence was triggered by man, by many people making a whole bunch of choices and decisions. The complexities of how it began and the complexities on how it may one day end are still unraveling. The forces of nature that have been unleashed still defy our technology, techniques, and even our collective confidence. Sadly, it does illuminate a darker side, not new, about the economics of the process. Responsible economists articulate the importance of incorporating the impacts of externalities into decision making. What that means is that what we do can have an adverse impact that transfers the burden, costs, and consequences of dealing with the mess to someone else. In the broadest sense, the total costs of what we do are bigger than our accounted costs and subsequent prices we charge.

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It’s Your Call

A blown call costs a pitcher a perfect game. This week, it really happened and everybody felt terrible, apologies ensued and the guilty umpire felt genuine remorse and accepted full responsibility for the failed measurement. A poor measurement did not change the perfection of the real performance, a better gage, instant replay validated that, but rather the record of what happened. Those that missed this story and are evaluating the statistics of pitching performance will only have the historic data to evaluate, data that is a false witness of events. Imagine the effects of all the poor measurements in one year of major sports event. Do they change important outcomes? Do they steer rewards or punishments? How about all the stuff that goes on with gamblers in or out of Las Vegas?
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When is the Exam?

Ever been caught in a situation for which you were not prepared? Ever dream where you forgot to attend a certain class at school, did not go for months, and then remembered, and the exam was to be in one hour, forgot the room, hadn’t studied, and then … panic? It can be unnerving. It evokes a very special anxiety, an unforgettable sensation. This type of anxiety is different than a surprise calamity that came from nowhere and it was something you could not have prepared for. The anxiety that comes from being unprepared is different because the consequences are typically very severe, sometimes disastrous, but very possibly preventable, had we prepared for it or to be surprised. It is but one dimension of the cost of unreadiness. That cost of unreadiness is terrible, nightmarish, fraught with self doubt and remorse, and becomes overwhelming when it is basking in the public eye. Sometimes, others suffer because of our unreadiness.

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A Gulf of Inconvenience

The oil well disaster events of the last weeks have been nothing short of ugly. In the background, the echoes of simplistic politicians ranting “Drill, baby, drill!” strike discordance with the fears and unavoidable harm playing out in the Gulf and spotlighted on the nightly news. Congressional hearings into the events are fraught with finger pointing at those called to testify and between those testifying with blame becoming the volleyball, destined to be set up, passed, and slammed until it hits a score.
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What If?

There may be a really big storm brewing. It may be a signal from a political barometer, or positioning, real outrage… not sure, but the thunder is increasing. The last few months have stoked the fires of outrage, anger, frustration, and deteriorating confidence from a public that may feel that they may have been too trusting.
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We Trusted You!

Watching the US Senate Congressional hearings this week, I almost felt as if I were at the cinema watching a fictional drama. One of those movies where the villains were conspiring to wreak global havoc and the world was rescued by a heroic figure that brought it to light. I wish it were fiction, but alas, there were no heroes, and in fact, there may have been some villains indeed, and many of us can attest to the havoc wrought on the global economy.
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How Did You Get So Ubiquitous?

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.” – Winston Churchill, House of Commons, August 20, 1940. Many recognized this as the timeless phrase describing the valiant effort by the British Royal Air Force Fighter Command during August 18th, 1940. It has come to represent the Battle of Britain and lives among the legendary victories, Agincourt, Trafalgar, and Waterloo. The Battle of Britain was very different, strategically, tactically, and operationally. The Battle of Britain developed a fascinating strategic application that becomes ever more relevant, Strategic Ubiquity.

Under the genius of Air Marshall Sir Hugh Dowding, the RAF Fighter Command overcame overwhelming odds against

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